Upon first review, the NFC games are more difficult for me to wrap my mind around than the AFC games. However, I think I’ve figured these games out as well now.
The goal of a gambler is to win around 60% of the bets they make. I proved to be able to get close to this a few years back. In more recent seasons, I feel like I’ve lost a step in this regard. Whether it’s a lack of knowledge, improvement of the sportsbook’s lines, or just over thinking — I ain’t what I used to be.
You are forewarned.
Saturday (8:00 PM EST)
Lions (+11) @ Saints
Most teams play better at home than on the road in the NFL. Nice analysis! But seriously, this home field advantage thing holds at least some truth in this league.
With that said, the home field concept and the Saints definitely exists. This New Orleans team is completely different at home in the dome as it is on the road. Maybe it;’s more the dome thing than the home thing but, regardless, at home they are golden right now.
The Saints already bet the crap out of the Lions in early December. It wasn’t even close — a two touchdown win. What’s different now?
Here we go. It’s football tourney time. It’s the only one we got. That is, unless you are super into FCS collegiate football.
The pro football dance starts Saturday It finally got cold this week up here in the Northeast. It’s starting to feel like playoff football weather. That said, of course two of the four games this weekend take place inside a dome. This includes the first game this Saturday.
Saturday (4:30 PM EST)
Bengals (+3) @ Texans
No more hugs. It’s almost time to tee it up.
The Cincinnati Bengals are in fact underdogs this weekend. It’s somewhat rare but the Bengals are actually getting the majority of the betting action. They are the sexy upset pick. How come?
This is a league where quarterback play rules the day more than ever now. This game is an interesting one in that regard. Not interesting like two quarterback’s who threw for 5,000+ yards going head-to-head, but interesting in the fact that we have two unproven guys going at it. Moreover, these are two team that are not playoff tested. Not at all.
The Bengals don’t have a playoff win since 1990. On the other side, the Texans are making their first playoff appearance in their short history.
In a league all about offense. It’s actually a defense that is going to determine my pick.
It’s here. The NFL Playoffs have to be three of the coolest weekend in all of sports. The highlight of Wildcard Weekend (as my banner somewhat vaguely suggests) is the Packers – Eagles showdown.
Without further delay, lets get into it.
New Orleans @ Seattle +12
Everyone knew that the winner of the Seahawks – Rams game would end-up as the appetizer on Saturday.
This line is actually moving down. Not what I expected.
It was announced yesterday that Matt Hasselback will indeed be the starter for Seattle. I’m not sure what that means in my mind. Charlie Whitehurst actually managed the team to a victory. That is something more than Hasselback has done in years. In fact, Matt has not won a playoff game since January of 2008. That would be the 2007 season. It’s been a while. Hasselback’s career passer rating in the playoffs is a rather paltry 79.9. In those starts the Seahawks are 4-5.
I am so sick of hearing about how loud the “12th man” is in Seattle. I need to witness it in person, or I will never believe that it is that much different than the average NFL stadium.
Despite my cynicism, 12 points is a lot to cover. And for a road team? Against a “playoff team”?
Pick: Seattle +12
New York Jets @ Indianapolis -2.5