#OWS

How Much More Can Russell Wilson Improve?

When the 2012 NFL season kicked off, no one gave Russell Wilson a ton of thought because he was scheduled to be playing behind Matt Flynn. However, Coach Pete Carroll decided early on that Wilson would be the guy to lead the offense. That decision paid off and helped Seattle get into the playoffs. The question is, can Wilson improve, or was he experiencing some beginner’s luck?

Coming out of college, Wilson had a lot of negatives that overshadowed his performance on the field. Perhaps it was unfair to be compared to the likes of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but he did not have the natural talent as the top signal callers in the 2012 draft.

Seattle gambled and took the undersized 23-year old to give him a shot. Wilson quickly made a name for himself, and finished the season about as strongly as possible. He finished fourth in passer rating while throwing for 3118 yards and 26 touchdowns. Those are not just good rookie numbers, but good numbers for any starting quarterback.

Part of Wilson’s success came from the fact that he was a bit unconventional in his ability to create outside of the pocket as well as in it. Seeing a quarterback for the first time for any NFL team is also a bit difficult to prepare for. Due to that, there is at least some concern that he has already reached his peak.

However, Seattle fans should not automatically worry. Wilson has already made a name for himself for his strong work ethic, and Carroll has already stated that his now franchise quarterback will be ready to take another step in 2013. Seeing is believing, but Wilson has continually proved people wrong at every level. He may not have the type of upside as his two main peers from his draft class, but he can be a consistent top 10 quarterback in the league, and a safe fantasy football pick, if he continues to improve and make adjustments.

Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013 A.K.A. Dorkapalooza IVV

 

The MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference is the baby of Daryl Morey (Rockets GM) and Jessica Gelman (Gillette marketing executive). As the story goes, Morey wanted to start the conference after taking the  Rockets job because he could no longer lecture back in Cambridge. “This is Daryl’s class,” Moneyball author Michael Lewis said.

Morey is a Sloan alum. Although the conference is held across the Charles River in Boston, this  year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference started the way us non-Ivy-Leaguers assume most conversations in Cambridge start. That is, with an MIT/Harvard joke. Morey jabbing at Gelman, a Harvard alum, that the Crimson aren’t much known for quantitative competencies.

From there the weekend stayed highbrow. It is after all Dorkapalooza, per Bill Simmons.

Oddly, this year’s conference didn’t open with one blockbuster panel. Last year’s sole opener was a panel headlined by Malcolm Gladwell. Although 2013 opened with multiple panels, there was one which was  clearly the “big show” of the bunch. It was aptly titled “Revenge of the Nerds,” and had a truly stellar cast of characters. Moderated by Michael  Lewis, the panel included Mark Cuban (Mavs owner and perennial Sloan Conference attendee), Nate  Silver (FiveThirtyEight), Paraag Marathe (49ers COO) and Daryl Morey.

This is the kind of panels this conference has repeatedly put together. The men joining the conference c0-chair were some of the most celebrated of the year. Lewis’ book was made into a blockbuster movie. Cuban, after winning the NBA title the previous year, joined a primetime ABC show called Shark  Tank. Nate Silver was easily the most talked about blogger (and statistician) in 2013. And Paraag’s Niners came within yards  of winning an NFL title.

What ended up being the main theme of the conference first surfaced here. Mentioned over and over was the challenge that those involved in analytics face when trying to get their message across to the traditional decision makers and influencers — general managers, coaches, players, etc.

Another interesting addition to the conference was Bob Haralabos. Haralabos is the most well known NBA gambler today. Haralabos talked at length about the gambler and bookmaker relationship. Or lack there of. There was a classic confrontation between Haralabas and the Sportsbook Director at Cantor Gaming, Matthew Holt. It all boiled over when Haralabas brought up Holt’s comment from last year’s conference that they would take “any bet” from any player. When asked what bet Cantor would take from Harabalos gleefully responded, “Ten thousand.” He then went on to essentially egg Holt on to lift that limit. That said, regardless of your opinion on him, Haralabos proves that william hill bookmakers aren’t the only ones making money in the gambling business.

Another underlying theme was writing. Or at least it felt that way to me. So many of the great minds in analytics have written about their sports. Of course, this idea starts with Bill James. In the opening panel alone, Lewis and Silver’s respective pens have as much  firepower as any two men over the past several years. Then there are the cases like Dean Olive. Oliver is currently the Director of  Production Analytics, ESPN Stats & Information. It’s a role that seems to be getting more and more  influence in Bristol. You see the analytics becoming more  prominent in the programming and publishing. Before Oliver was officially in the hoops world, yes, he was an academic writer and also wrote “Basketball on Paper.” Simply put, he’s a writer, too. Maybe it’s just me missing daily writing, but along with celebrating numbers, this past weekend turned into a celebration of words.

Whatever the case may be, the written word is clearly alive and well.

Betting tips on who will score the most touchdowns this season in the NFL

Outside of the common types of NFL sports bets – such as which teams will win the AFC and NFC leagues and the Super Bowl itself, another popular way of betting on the NFL is a prop (or proposition) bet. There are all kinds of prop bets available for the NFL, like betting on who will score the first touchdown in a particular match (often the Super Bowl), and who will make the most passes leading to touchdowns, to which team will be the first to score in particular match – but one of the less common ones is betting on who will score the most touchdowns over the season.
Indeed many sports betting sites don’t offer this as an NFL prop bet, and there are reasons why it can be a difficult thing to bet – with the primary one being that there are so many factors that can affect it over the course of the season, from injuries to players to the overall performance of the team (and thus how far into the season they progress). A tip for those considering putting a bet on this would be to think instead about betting on the player who will score the most touchdowns over the course of a single big match instead – for example the Super Bowl itself.
Another alternative would be to play an NFL themed slots game like $5 Million Touchdown at an online casino. If you think that a mere slots game cannot possibly be as potentially lucrative as a well-placed prop bet, then consider that the name of $5 Million Touchdown derives from the size of the maximum jackpot on offer. Furthermore, if you are also of the belief that casino games like slots have no real connection with the NFL, then consider the reel icons shaped like footballs, players and whistles, plus the bonus game where you have to pass the ball from one player to another, gaining bonus credits, until you score a touchdown.