NFL Week 5: Gambling Enabler

If you weren’t long the Browns on Thursday night, you have some catching up to do. There are a few spots on the week 5 schedule to make that happen. That’s right, it’s already week 5 and it’s time to recoup those losses. It’s time to turn the first four weeks of historical data into future betting profits.

Don’t Fall For The Colts

Luck’s late-game heroics have  been quite impressive. Apparently Vegas believes others have hopped on the Indy bandwagon, as I did. That said, the idea that Seattle (even on the road) is only 3-points better than Indianapolis is ludacris.

Pick: Seahawks -3

Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind

The Packers had a bye week during week 4. This week the Lions come to Lambeau. We watched the Lions impress last week, while the Pack were on the sidelines. Last we saw Green Bay they were falling apart gainst the Bengals. Could this line reflect that  idea that we are forgetting the Green Bay team that beat up the 49ers and looked to have an unstoppable offense?

Note: the over/under for this game is reaching the mid-50s, which is a lot for any game not featuring the Eagles defense.

Pick: Packers -7

Like The 2007 Patriots

This one  is simple. The Broncos are entering 2007 Patriots territory. No, no, not the idea of going undefeated. That will come later in the season. Rather, it’s the concept that Vegas has not yet fully adjusted for the juggernaut that is the 2013 Broncos. Manning is gunning to get his single-season TD record back and is looking like his team  will average 30+ points in doing so. Until further notice, take Denver.

It’s like picking stocks. In general, are Netflix and Tesla overvalued? Hell yeah. That does not mean the stock won’t continue to rise in price. So jump on board.

Pick: Denver -9

A Look At The NFL’s Top Rushers

The NFL season is almost underway, and that of course has kicked off preseason speculation of all kinds. Will Peyton Manning’s new receiving corps be unstoppable? Will Percy Harvin push the Seahawks over the edge? Will Colin Kaepernick be able to provide an encore for his stellar 2013 debut? These are just a few of the questions being asked everywhere from Yahoo! Sports to your very own Man Cave.

One of the most intriguing questions heading into every NFL season is which running backs will lead the charge in yardage and touchdowns. For the most part, this particular question is a big deal because RBs drive fantasy teams! Nevertheless, a team with a good runner stands a chance to compete. So here’s a look at how the runners stack up according the the Betfair sports betting projections.

It will certainly come as no surprise that Adrian Peterson is projected to have the best season out of the running backs. Betfair projects him with 9/4 odds – easily the strongest of all runners – to lead the league in yardage, and given that we almost saw Peterson break the single season rushing record coming off of an ACL injury last season, the projection is easy to understand. It’s a no brainer that Peterson will have a monstrous season.

Alfred Morris comes in with the second best odds to lead the league in rushing, at 11/2. Morris had an outrageous rookie campaign, and with questions about RGIII’s usage in Washington in the early weeks, Morris should handle even more of the offensive load.

Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch (6/1), Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles (6/1), and Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin (7/1) sit behind Peterson and Morris. Lynch is a proven stud who’s only getting better and playing for a juggernaut team. Meanwhile, Charles has always been good, and with Andy Reid calling the shots in KC his yardage could see a significant boost. Martin is an absolute stud, capable of running with power and breaking big plays, and showed glimpses of potential that could see him become the league’s best runner in a few years.

Of course, the reality is we never know exactly what to expect. Injuries are always a concern, and certain teams will inevitably be weaker on offense than expected. Baltimore’s Ray Rice, Cleveland’s Trent Richardson, and even Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller could all sneak into the conversation for the yardage crown, and even dark horses like Green Bay rookie Eddie Lacy could make some waves. The bottom line is, the NFL’s running backs are extremely deep and extremely talented. Be sure to renew your NFL Sunday Ticket to catch all the action as the season kicks off in a few weeks!

NFL Win Total Over/Under Picks 2013

There’s nothing  better than a warm late July, early August day when NFL football starts back up. Over the past couple weekends I have started to feel that legitimate excitement. We can start talking less about murders and DUIs and more about pre-season and fantasy football. Until September when the regular season kicks off, that’s the best thing we’ve got going.

With the start of the pre-season,  it’s almost time for some online football betting once again. So that means it’s time to talk NFL team win total over/unders. I’ve written about these tremendously fun prop bets for several seasons now. Of course, to be honest, from an ROI point of view I’ve had mixed results.

With that disclaimer, here we go.

Falcons – 10

Matt Ryan isn’t my favorite.  Okay, in fact, I dislike him quite a bit. Putting that aside, although some significant changes have taken place, the Falcons offense shouldn’t miss a beat with the addition of Stephen Jackson in 2013.

Considering my tendency to want to pick against Matty Ice, this pick carries that  much more weight.

Pick: Over

That said, the over/under for playoff wins is 0.5 and I’m going under.

Rams – 7.5

I am a huge fan of  Stephen  Jackson. However, maybe having that albatross in Atlanta will be a good thing. That’s right — I could make the argument that a Rams offense without SJ is better off. Still not a .500 team, though.

Pick: Under

Ravens – 8.5

The Super Bowl champs teetering as a .500 team… Clearly this is due to the number of key plays this team has lost. It’s rather staggering. The over is currently getting more action, still. That means good odds betting against the defending champions.

Pick: Under

Redskins – 8.5

Only 8.5?! Apparently, Garcon’s thinking hasn’t spread west to Vegas just yet. The chance alone that Washington is QB-less at some point during this season screams under.

Pick: Under

Saints – 9

This is one of those “battleground” lines due to the suspensions last year. Was last year’s step backward (two steps backward?) an anomaly or a reality? I’m not sure I want to bet this one, because there is that much more uncertainty present here, but…

Pick: Over