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NFL Week 5: Gambling Enabler

If you weren’t long the Browns on Thursday night, you have some catching up to do. There are a few spots on the week 5 schedule to make that happen. That’s right, it’s already week 5 and it’s time to recoup those losses. It’s time to turn the first four weeks of historical data into future betting profits.

Don’t Fall For The Colts

Luck’s late-game heroics have  been quite impressive. Apparently Vegas believes others have hopped on the Indy bandwagon, as I did. That said, the idea that Seattle (even on the road) is only 3-points better than Indianapolis is ludacris.

Pick: Seahawks -3

Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind

The Packers had a bye week during week 4. This week the Lions come to Lambeau. We watched the Lions impress last week, while the Pack were on the sidelines. Last we saw Green Bay they were falling apart gainst the Bengals. Could this line reflect that  idea that we are forgetting the Green Bay team that beat up the 49ers and looked to have an unstoppable offense?

Note: the over/under for this game is reaching the mid-50s, which is a lot for any game not featuring the Eagles defense.

Pick: Packers -7

Like The 2007 Patriots

This one  is simple. The Broncos are entering 2007 Patriots territory. No, no, not the idea of going undefeated. That will come later in the season. Rather, it’s the concept that Vegas has not yet fully adjusted for the juggernaut that is the 2013 Broncos. Manning is gunning to get his single-season TD record back and is looking like his team  will average 30+ points in doing so. Until further notice, take Denver.

It’s like picking stocks. In general, are Netflix and Tesla overvalued? Hell yeah. That does not mean the stock won’t continue to rise in price. So jump on board.

Pick: Denver -9

NFL Win Total Over/Under Picks 2013

There’s nothing  better than a warm late July, early August day when NFL football starts back up. Over the past couple weekends I have started to feel that legitimate excitement. We can start talking less about murders and DUIs and more about pre-season and fantasy football. Until September when the regular season kicks off, that’s the best thing we’ve got going.

With the start of the pre-season,  it’s almost time for some online football betting once again. So that means it’s time to talk NFL team win total over/unders. I’ve written about these tremendously fun prop bets for several seasons now. Of course, to be honest, from an ROI point of view I’ve had mixed results.

With that disclaimer, here we go.

Falcons – 10

Matt Ryan isn’t my favorite.  Okay, in fact, I dislike him quite a bit. Putting that aside, although some significant changes have taken place, the Falcons offense shouldn’t miss a beat with the addition of Stephen Jackson in 2013.

Considering my tendency to want to pick against Matty Ice, this pick carries that  much more weight.

Pick: Over

That said, the over/under for playoff wins is 0.5 and I’m going under.

Rams – 7.5

I am a huge fan of  Stephen  Jackson. However, maybe having that albatross in Atlanta will be a good thing. That’s right — I could make the argument that a Rams offense without SJ is better off. Still not a .500 team, though.

Pick: Under

Ravens – 8.5

The Super Bowl champs teetering as a .500 team… Clearly this is due to the number of key plays this team has lost. It’s rather staggering. The over is currently getting more action, still. That means good odds betting against the defending champions.

Pick: Under

Redskins – 8.5

Only 8.5?! Apparently, Garcon’s thinking hasn’t spread west to Vegas just yet. The chance alone that Washington is QB-less at some point during this season screams under.

Pick: Under

Saints – 9

This is one of those “battleground” lines due to the suspensions last year. Was last year’s step backward (two steps backward?) an anomaly or a reality? I’m not sure I want to bet this one, because there is that much more uncertainty present here, but…

Pick: Over

How Much More Can Russell Wilson Improve?

When the 2012 NFL season kicked off, no one gave Russell Wilson a ton of thought because he was scheduled to be playing behind Matt Flynn. However, Coach Pete Carroll decided early on that Wilson would be the guy to lead the offense. That decision paid off and helped Seattle get into the playoffs. The question is, can Wilson improve, or was he experiencing some beginner’s luck?

Coming out of college, Wilson had a lot of negatives that overshadowed his performance on the field. Perhaps it was unfair to be compared to the likes of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but he did not have the natural talent as the top signal callers in the 2012 draft.

Seattle gambled and took the undersized 23-year old to give him a shot. Wilson quickly made a name for himself, and finished the season about as strongly as possible. He finished fourth in passer rating while throwing for 3118 yards and 26 touchdowns. Those are not just good rookie numbers, but good numbers for any starting quarterback.

Part of Wilson’s success came from the fact that he was a bit unconventional in his ability to create outside of the pocket as well as in it. Seeing a quarterback for the first time for any NFL team is also a bit difficult to prepare for. Due to that, there is at least some concern that he has already reached his peak.

However, Seattle fans should not automatically worry. Wilson has already made a name for himself for his strong work ethic, and Carroll has already stated that his now franchise quarterback will be ready to take another step in 2013. Seeing is believing, but Wilson has continually proved people wrong at every level. He may not have the type of upside as his two main peers from his draft class, but he can be a consistent top 10 quarterback in the league, and a safe fantasy football pick, if he continues to improve and make adjustments.