Every season RDM obsesses on the NFL team win total over/unders. It’s one of the more fun bets in all of sports. A single well-placed bet turns an otherwise random team into a must see weekly event. Today we look at the 2012 Houston Texans.
The number: 9.5
This team lost 3 one-score games last season. You can add a 4th game to that list with the playoff loss to Baltimore. The point is that this team was either close to being below .500, or close to destroying the AFC South division in 2011.
Gary Kubiak and the Texans have the same awful relationship that we all saw in high school. The two parties know that they need to part ways. However, every time they are about to split, something happens and the two get closer together than ever before. Last year it was a 10-win season that reunited the two.
Where does that place them in 2012, though?
I took a long, hard look at the Texans schedule. The season begins with Miami, @Jacksonville, @Denver, Tennessee, and @NY Jets. Those have the potential of being a damn friendly schedule to open the season.
In fact, it’s made me change my line of thinking. I was going to pull a quick one here. I was going to talk about how the 9.5 makes me nervous, so I’d recommend buying that extra half game as a buffer. You can get +140 on Texans under 10 wins. Those are not bad odds.
However, those 5 softball games to begin the season might be just enough to push Houston into double digit wins for the second straight year.
The team finishes up the year with two games against the Colts, with a Vikings game mashed in the middle. That start, and that finish, should lead to at least 7 wins, at minimum. That leaves 3 wins over the remaining 8 games in the middle of the season.
I can’t believe I’ve convinced myself of this. But…
