107 will go live from Memphis, TN with no Rampage-Rashad grudge match. Still it is a great card. If that fight had been on it then it would be out of this world. I think this is one of the more balanced cards in a while. Up and down there are good fights to be found all over. Why not start at the top though?
155 lbs: BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
A war for the UFC Lightweight Championship. Two of the most charismatic and interesting fighters at 155. If you think BJ is “out there” get a load of Diego. This guy broke up with a UFC ring girl to “concentrate on his career”. That’s out there.
The Odds:
As far as the betting odds; Sanchez is predictably a somewhat large underdog. You can get anywhere from +200 to +250 on him. This means that BJ comes in at close to -300.
The Fight:
Sanchez, who recently dropped from 170 to 155, is known for his cardio. He loves to push the pace. In fact that is often times his main weapon. On the other hand, BJ has had cardio question marks in the past. He looked fit for Florian at 101–essentially as good as he has in years. He has kept the same trainers in preparation for this fight. It shouldn’t be an issue unless this thing gets real deep into the 4th or 5th rounds.
The Prediction:
Penn via TKO
265 lbs.: Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Mir has been vocal about the fact that he wants there to be a Lesnar-Mir III. The road to that rematch starts here and leads directly through Cheick Kongo. Kongo is a massive heavyweight who is also just as much a UFC vet as Mir. Cheick just can not put together a solid win streak for the life of him.
The Fight:
If Mir can take Kongo down it might be a good idea. He has superior ground skills and it nullifies the fists of the massive Kongo. It would also help to score points and allow Mir to just avoid damage while standing.
The Odds:
Mir sits at right around -175 while Kongo is about +200. No surprises.
The Prediction:
Mir via tapout
155 lbs.: Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida
If you don’t like the nickname “Ken Flo” you can always use Kenny “I finish fights” Florian. Fight of the night potential, especially if Guida controls the pace.
The Fight:
Guida, like Sanchez in the other 155 bout, has a torrid pace. Florian is more of the calm and controlled assassin. This one is going to be all about pacing. Florian has fine cardio but most likely will want to keep the pace something less than frantic.
The Prediction:
Florian via decision
