Finishing up the 2009 NFL wins over/unders today. The last stop is the AFC East. This division is the home to the biggest over/under. That team has a new quarterback from last years squad. How often are you going to see that?
Miami Dolphins – 7
Last year, obviously, the ‘Phins were the biggest surprise not just in this division but in the entire NFL. After getting to the 11 win mark last year, the powers to be still aren’t buying Miami as a legitimate threat in the AFC. In 2008 their line was set at 5.5 and as I said they straight-up doubled it.
I think Chad Pennington must have done something so horrible in a past life to have to suffer through what he endures. He is the Rodney Dangerfield of NFL quarterbacks; no respect! He has had more good seasons than bad. More impressive, those good seasons have come on teams that are not all that great in New York. Good luck Mark Sanchez!
Pick: Over 7
New England Patriots – 11.5
Last year the Pats achieved 11 wins with some guy named Matt Cassel. This year Tom Brady returns and as the number above suggests, big things are expected.
It there is one thing I have learned it is not to bet against Bill Belichick nor Tom Brady. They seems to win more ofter then they lose. Two years ago, that season when the team had a very good regular season, you know the one I am talking about… every week the line would come out and it would be these absurd doubled digit numbers that even crept into the 20′s. Every week I said, no way this is the one they can’t cover. And every week they would crush it.
Brady is going to come out like a freakin’ maniac. He hasn’t seen the field in 12 months. It’s going to be like a guy getting out of a prison and seeing women for the first time in a year. He is going to man handle the Bills and Jets in the first two weeks.
Twelve wins is a lot but I just can’t bet against this team.
Pick: Over 11.5
New York Jets – 7
Mark Sanchez begins the journey in New York. Now, which Jets team does he take the helm of? The one we saw that started the season 8-3? Or the one that we saw go 1-4 down the stretch?
Now, of course there is a certain quarterback from last years roster that is very responsible for their meteoric rise and historic collapse and he is no longer there. One would think that this is a pretty talented team. However (until last season) it is super-rare for a rookie quarterback to do very well right out of the gate. I think this division might be a bit much to navigate for a guy with, what, not many more than 15 college starts.
Pick: Under 7
Buffalo Bills – 7.5
Key acquisitions often plays a large role in turning a team around. Hmm, I can’t think of any high profile ones in Buffalo.
But seriously, I think this year is a complete disappointment if the Bills are not in contention for an AFC East title. Regardless of the T.O. signing. The Bills have been “up-and-coming” for 3 years now.
That being said, I’m not so sure they can do it. You might recalled the Bills hot start last year as they went 4-0 and 5-1 before losing 4 in a row and 7/8.
If you look a little deeper their first several games were easier than a cakewalk; Seattle, @Jacksonville, Oakland, @St. Louis. That will certainly help imflate you record.
Pick: Under 7.5
