Our 2009 NFL wins over/unders are rolling right along. Today is out first look into the AFC. Once again, just as with the NFC, we will start in the West.
The AFC West was the most disappointing, if not the straight-up worst, division last season. Not a single team was above .500. The Chargers had the 3rd best division record in the entire NFL but still only finished 8-8.
San Diego Chargers – 9.5
Staying in San Diego; I think these guys are a lock to win the division. That being said, you would think that that means at least 9 wins but this division disproved that idea last season. I have to use some type of law of average here though. If I believe San Diego is going to win the division than I believe that they are capable of winning 10 or 11 games.
Pick: Over 9.5
Denver Broncos – 7.5
This is an interesting one to me. The number for the Broncos has remained the same from last season. Obviously it isn’t the only variable, but I feel like the Broncos are not as good a team as they were last year. That being said, 7 or 8 wins is very attainable for them. That is especially true when you look at the Raiders and Chiefs who they play 4 times. They start out the season at Cincinnati, Cleveland and @ Oakland. If I am picking those games today then I have the Broncos starting 3-0. It definitely gets harder from there.
A 3-0 start would be a nice cushion but it’s still so hard for me to think that this team will win the same, or more, games than they did last year.
Pick: Under 7.5
Oakland Raiders – 5.5
The Raiders are practically as big a laughing stock as the Lions. Honestly maybe more. Some how they came up with 5 wins last year. Either they have some more talent there then we think or they are so bad that they can’t even lose effectively.
They did not beat a playoff team last year but they did come up with two wins in the division. This team is a mystery to me. I can’t even understand how they ended up with 5 wins last season. I think I still have the 49 point performance that Matt Cassel dropped on them in week 15 stuck in my head.
And I know what you are thinking; why did I put a picture of a random linemen for the Raiders? That isn’t a random 350 pound linemen… that’s competitive eating champion and the Raiders starting QB JaMarcus Russell.
Pick: Under 5.5
Kansas City Chiefs – 6
Speak of the devil, our last stop is Matt Cassel’s new home. In 2008 the Chiefs’ over/under was 5.5. They won a whopping 2 games. Now in 2009 their over/under is 6. Hmm…
Looks like Matt Cassel has made a believer out of some people.
I think the Cheifs might have the hardest beginning to their schedule out of all the teams in this divison. Within the first 7 weeks they play; at Baltimore, @ Philadelphia, NY Giants, Dallas, @ Washington and San Diego. Then, and only then, do they earn a well deserved bye week.
I think it might be a tough early part of the season. I think they will win enough in the second half to make up for it. Barely.
Pick: Over 6
